NCAA Football Prediction: Syracuse Orange vs Pittsburgh Panthers

Friday, December 02, 2011

by Frank Martin

Tino Sunseri - NCAA Football Prediction: Syracuse Orange vs Pittsburgh Panthers

The Pittsburgh Panthers and Syracuse Orange are both one win shy of bowl eligibility heading into this weekend's regular season finale, so expect plenty of competitive fire between the Big East Conference rivals in this showdown.

Syracuse seemed to be a lock for a bowl when it defeated West Virginia by 26 points back on October 21, but the team has suffered four consecutive defeats since that triumph. Three of the losses during that span have been rather lopsided, including last weekend's 30-13 setback to Cincinnati that dropped the Orange to 5-6 overall.

As for Pittsburgh, it has lost two of its last three games to put its postseason prospects in jeopardy. The Panthers jumped out to a 14-0 lead over West Virginia last weekend only to fall by a 21-20 final to their bitter rivals. Todd Graham is in his first season as head coach at Pitt, and a bowl berth would obviously help in recruiting.

Pitt owns a narrow 33-30-3 series edge over Syracuse, which includes a 45-14 romp over the Orange last season.

- Syracuse Orange @ Pittsburgh Panthers
When: 12:00 PM ET, Saturday, December 3, 2011
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
TV: ESPN2
Check Live NCAA Basketball Odds on SBG Global Sportsbook .

SBG Global Sportsbook currently have the Panthers listed as 10-point favorites versus the Orange, while the game's total is sitting at 47.

The Orange are generating 24.5 ppg this season while racking up 348.5 total ypg, and they rely heavily on the arm of Ryan Nassib. The quarterback has connected on 61.6 percent of his passes for 2,460 yards with 21 touchdowns and only seven interceptions. Alec Lemon has made 60 catches this season for 735 yards and six touchdowns, while Nick Provo checks in with 46 catches for 500 yards and seven TDs. The ground attack has been rather weak overall, yet Antwon Bailey has rushed for 998 yards and six TDs.

Opponents are scoring 28.1 ppg against Syracuse, which is surrendering 391.3 total ypg. The Orange have allowed 35 touchdowns, including 20 passing scores, and they have notched 20 takeaways to date. Syracuse needs to get better on third downs, as opponents have been able to make good on 43 percent of their third-down conversion attempts.

In the Bearcats' 17-point victory over the Orange last week, Syracuse posted a total of 373 total yards, but only one touchdown was notched by the offense despite the fact that just a single turnover was committed. The fact that the Orange were 4-of-15 on third-down conversion attempts and 0-of-2 on fourth down certainly didn't help the cause. Defensively, Syracuse allowed 368 yards to Cincinnati, which finished with a pair of passing TDs and one rushing score. The Orange surrendered four sacks and had zero of their own.

Pittsburgh got off to a tremendous start against WVU last week, as Zach Brown and Isaac Bailey both had TD runs in the first quarter. Unfortunately, the offense was unable to reach the end zone over the final 47 minutes of the contest, and the Pitt defense was unable to keep the Mountaineers bottled up down the stretch. The Panthers finished with a mere 296 yards on 81 offensive plays, and QB Tino Sunseri threw for a modest total of 137 yards with no touchdowns and one INT.

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Through 11 games, the Panthers are generating 25.1 ppg and 364.8 total ypg, respectable numbers for a team that lost its best offensive player, RB Ray Graham, to injury in the season's eighth game. Without the star tailback, added pressure obviously falls on the arm of Sunseri, who has completed 62.8 percent of his attempts for 2,174 yards. The QB has only nine TD to go with his nine INTs, and Devin Street has reached the end zone just twice on his team-high 43 catches.

Opponents are managing to post 22.6 ppg against Pitt, which is permitting 355.7 total ypg. The Panthers are allowing 234.0 ypg through the air, and 14 of the 27 touchdowns that they have surrendered to opposing offenses have been of the rushing variety. One of the top defenders on the roster is Max Gruder, as his 98 total tackles are 40 more than his closest teammate. Also worthy of mention is Aaron Donald, who has posted 14 TFL, including 10 sacks.

The edge goes to Pittsburgh in this affair, as it has the advantage of playing at home. Expect the defense of the Panthers to make just enough big plays to hold off the Orange.

NCAA FOOTBALL PREDICTION: Pittsburgh 24, Syracuse 17

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aaron donald - alec lemon - antwon bailey - devin street - heinz field - isaac bailey - max gruder - nick provo - pittsburgh panthers - ray graham